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BAL vs TOR

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BAL @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BALTIMOREBAL
0·0
TORONTOTOR
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

BAL DUGOUTTOR DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.8
SL85.6
CH84.5
SL85.5
CH86.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BAL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TOR to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TOR -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TOR

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TOR wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYBAL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

BAL STARTER

Chris Bassitt

AVERAGE
2.8
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 38% · 14% whiffCurveball · 22% · 30% whiffCutter · 19% · 23% whiff

TOR STARTER

Max Scherzer

AVERAGE
3.6
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 16% whiffSlider · 18% · 26% whiffChangeup · 16% · 16% whiff

Max Scherzer grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Chris Bassitt grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Dylan Beavers (L)hit 63% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 72% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jackson Holliday (L)hit 59% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Coby Mayo (R)hit 60% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 58% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Samuel Basallo (L)hit 60% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)hit 59% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Heston Kjerstad (L)hit 56% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Colton Cowser (L)hit 53% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

TOR LINEUP

  1. 1Brett Bateman (L)hit 69% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2George Springer (R)hit 69% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 67% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alejandro Kirk (R)hit 63% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathan Lukes (L)hit 62% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 59% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Josh Smith (L)hit 56% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Andrés Giménez (L)hit 56% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ernie Clement (R)hit 58% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BAL TOR

Game Markets

BAL @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

32%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore TOR by 0.48 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.83, TOR 4.34
  • Chris Bassitt (BAL) vs Max Scherzer (TOR)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
CB

Chris Bassitt

BAL SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

27%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against TOR
MS

Max Scherzer

TOR SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against BAL
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
GS

George Springer

TOR · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
SB

Samuel Basallo

BAL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
BB

Brett Bateman

TOR · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
VJ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
AK

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Max Scherzer
NL

Nathan Lukes

TOR · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
JH

Jackson Holliday

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
EC

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
AG

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
JS

Josh Smith

TOR · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
HK

Heston Kjerstad

BAL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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