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CIN vs MIL

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CIN @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CINCINNATICIN
0·0
MILWAUKEEMIL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

CIN DUGOUTMIL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.7
SL83.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

MIL Over 4.5 runs

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 25-for-85 (.294) with 6 HR vs. this starter, career · 81°F, 15mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL
LINEUP EDGEMIL

CIN STARTER

Andrew Abbott

SHAKY
3.2
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 12% whiffSweeper · 20% · 27% whiffChangeup · 19% · 37% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

MIL STARTER

Dustin May

AVERAGE
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 21% whiffCutter · 24% · 24% whiffSweeper · 19% · 28% whiff

Dustin May grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Andrew Abbott grades poor (Pitching+ 94)

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 61% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 66% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Sal Stewart (R)hit 64% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4JJ Bleday (L)hit 54% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 59% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 53% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Carlos Jorge (L)hit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Matt McLain (R)hit 44% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ke'Bryan Hayeshit 43% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Jackson Chourio (R)hit 76% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    76%

    1+ HIT

    40%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    59%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brice Turang (L)hit 66% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3William Contreras (R)hit 68% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Andrew Vaughn (R)hit 71% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jake Bauers (L)hit 67% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luis Lara (S)hit 61% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Cooper Pratt (R)hit 59% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 64% · HR 12%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Joey Ortiz (R)hit 57% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CIN MIL

Game Markets

CIN @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

67%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

57%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

62%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

50%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

58%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CIN by 1.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CIN 4.03, MIL 5.60
  • Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs Dustin May (MIL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
AA

Andrew Abbott

CIN SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against MIL
DM

Dustin May

MIL SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

56%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against CIN
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
JB

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Dustin May
AV

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Dustin May
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Dustin May
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Dustin May
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Dustin May
GM

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
HR

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Dustin May
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
LL

Luis Lara

MIL · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
CP

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
CJ

Carlos Jorge

CIN · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Dustin May
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dustin May
KH

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 63%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dustin May

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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