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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CLE vs MIN

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CLE @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CLEVELANDCLE
0·0
MINNESOTAMIN
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CLE DUGOUTMIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.1
FB93.2
SL84.9
SL84.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CLE Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIN to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCLE Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECLE
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

CLE STARTER

Parker Messick

AVERAGE
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 27% whiffChangeup · 23% · 36% whiffSinker · 15% · 10% whiff

MIN STARTER

Taj Bradley

AVERAGE
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 17% whiffCutter · 24% · 35% whiffSplit-Finger · 20% · 38% whiff

Taj Bradley grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Parker Messick grades avg (Pitching+ 105)

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 63% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Chase DeLauter (L)hit 64% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3José Ramírez (S)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jo Adell (R)hit 56% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Travis Bazzana (L)hit 52% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 57% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Angel Martínez (S)hit 51% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Hedges (R)hit 42% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 48% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 62% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Kaelen Culpepper (R)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Ryan Jeffers (R)hit 59% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Bell (S)hit 61% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Kody Clemens (L)hit 59% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Royce Lewis (R)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brooks Lee (S)hit 51% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Martinhit 50% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Walker Jenkins (L)hit 43% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CLE MIN

Game Markets

CLE @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

29%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

35%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

32%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

31%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

27%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 6.75 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CLE 3.47, MIN 3.28
  • Parker Messick (CLE) vs Taj Bradley (MIN)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
PM

Parker Messick

CLE SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against MIN
TB

Taj Bradley

MIN SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

34%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against CLE
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Parker Messick
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Taj Bradley
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Taj Bradley
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Taj Bradley
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taj Bradley
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Parker Messick
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Taj Bradley
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Parker Messick
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Parker Messick
KC

Kaelen Culpepper

MIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Parker Messick
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taj Bradley
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Taj Bradley
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Parker Messick
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Parker Messick
AM

Austin Martin

MIN · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Parker Messick
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taj Bradley
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Parker Messick
AH

Austin Hedges

CLE · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 8% against 10%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taj Bradley

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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