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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

COL vs DET

Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the COL @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

COLORADOCOL
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

COL DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

COL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB95.2
FB94.5
FB93.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

COL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

54%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCOL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Detroit wins

46%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

COL STARTER

Mason Adams

AVERAGE
2.9
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 28% whiffSinker · 27% · 6% whiff

DET STARTER

Framber Valdez

AVERAGE
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 45% · 10% whiffCurveball · 29% · 31% whiffChangeup · 19% · 21% whiff

Framber Valdez grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Mason Adams grades avg (Pitching+ 99)

COL LINEUP

  1. 1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 68% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Connor Norby (R)hit 59% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Cole Carrigg (S)hit 65% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Hunter Goodman (R)hit 68% · HR 28%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Kyle Karroshit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Adael Amador (S)hit 55% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Troy Johnston (L)hit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jordan Beck (R)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 52% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 65% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Gleyber Torres (R)hit 65% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Colt Keith (L)hit 65% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Riley Greene (L)hit 67% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Dillon Dingler (R)hit 65% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Max Clark (L)hit 59% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7John Peck (R)hit 53% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Zach McKinstry (L)hit 52% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Javier Báez (R)hit 54% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

COL DET

Game Markets

COL @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

DET -1.5

35%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.58 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: COL 4.28, DET 4.30
  • Mason Adams (COL) vs Framber Valdez (DET)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
MA

Mason Adams

COL SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

3%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

35%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against DET
FV

Framber Valdez

DET SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against COL
HG

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Mason Adams
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Mason Adams
JM

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Framber Valdez
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Mason Adams
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Mason Adams
CC

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Mason Adams
CN

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Framber Valdez
KK

Kyle Karros

COL · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5
  • Facing Framber Valdez
TJ

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Framber Valdez
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Mason Adams
AA

Adael Amador

COL · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 27% against 29%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Framber Valdez
JB

Javier Báez

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Mason Adams
JB

Jordan Beck

COL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
JP

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Mason Adams
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Mason Adams
ET

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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