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CWS vs STL

Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CWS @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCWS
0·0
ST. LOUISSTL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CWS DUGOUTSTL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.4
CV77
FB93
CH84

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CWS Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCWS Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGESTL

CWS STARTER

Luis Castillo

AVERAGE
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 42% · 27% whiffSlider · 25% · 27% whiffSinker · 19% · 11% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

STL STARTER

Kyle Leahy

AVERAGE
3.2
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 17% whiffCurveball · 17% · 27% whiffSlider · 16% · 23% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Kyle Leahy grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Luis Castillo grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Chase Meidroth (R)hit 63% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Randal Grichuk (R)hit 71% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 65% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Colson Montgomery (L)hit 60% · HR 26%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Edgar Querohit 51% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Brenton Doyle (R)hit 55% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Braden Montgomery (S)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jake Rogers (R)hit 44% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Luisangel Acuña (R)hit 51% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

STL LINEUP

  1. 1José Fermín (R)hit 64% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Iván Herrera (R)hit 65% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jordan Walker (R)hit 68% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alec Burleson (L)hit 67% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Joshua Báez (R)hit 62% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Leo Bernal (S)hit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Thomas Saggese (R)hit 61% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Masyn Winnhit 57% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nathan Church (L)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS STL

Game Markets

CWS @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

STL -1.5

40%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore CWS by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CWS 4.49, STL 4.93
  • Luis Castillo (CWS) vs Kyle Leahy (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LC

Luis Castillo

CWS SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against STL
KL

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

16%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against CWS
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
RG

Randal Grichuk

CWS · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Luis Castillo
JB

Joshua Báez

STL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Luis Castillo
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Luis Castillo
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Luis Castillo
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Luis Castillo
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Luis Castillo
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Luis Castillo
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Luis Castillo
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Luis Castillo
BD

Brenton Doyle

CWS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
LA

Luisangel Acuña

CWS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
EQ

Edgar Quero

CWS · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 5
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
JR

Jake Rogers

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 14%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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