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KC vs BOS

Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
BOSTONBOS
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTBOS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

KC Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.4
FB94.8
FB93.5
CV78

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

KC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BOS to win

40%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BOS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BOS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BOS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYKC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Kansas City wins

60%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBOS
LINEUP EDGEBOS

KC STARTER

Randy Dobnak

SHAKY
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
88
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 39% · 9% whiffSweeper · 25% · 32% whiffChangeup · 21% · 28% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

BOS STARTER

Ranger Suarez

AVERAGE
4.1
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 24% · 13% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 23% · 16% whiffCutter · 19% · 15% whiff

Ranger Suarez grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Randy Dobnak grades poor (Pitching+ 88)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 67% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 74% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Vinnie Pasquantino (L)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Salvador Perez (R)hit 65% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Massey (L)hit 65% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6John Rave (L)hit 59% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nick Loftin (R)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Kyle Isbel (L)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Isaac Collins (S)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 74% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mickey Gasper (S)hit 68% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Adley Rutschman (S)hit 66% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 69% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Trevor Story (R)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Sogard (S)hit 64% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Caleb Durbin (R)hit 60% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jarren Duran (L)hit 60% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)hit 59% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC BOS

Game Markets

KC @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

58%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

43%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

54%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore KC by 0.73 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 4.53, BOS 5.26
  • Randy Dobnak (KC) vs Ranger Suarez (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RD

Randy Dobnak

KC SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

80%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

69%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against BOS
RS

Ranger Suarez

BOS SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against KC
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Randy Dobnak
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 37% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Randy Dobnak
MG

Mickey Gasper

BOS · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Randy Dobnak
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Randy Dobnak
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Randy Dobnak
VP

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Randy Dobnak
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Randy Dobnak
JR

John Rave

KC · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Randy Dobnak
IK

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Randy Dobnak
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ranger Suarez
KI

Kyle Isbel

KC · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ranger Suarez

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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