AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAA vs WSH

Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAA @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAA

0·0

WASHINGTONWSH

TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAA Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.3

SL86.3

FB94

FB92.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAA Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · LAA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

WSH to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

WSH -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL WSH

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

WSH wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYLAA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 22 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAA

LINEUP EDGEWSH

LAA STARTER

Walbert Ureña

AVERAGE

5.9
PROJECTED Ks: 104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 34% · 35% whiffSinker · 32% · 17% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 21% whiff

WSH STARTER

Andrew Alvarez

AVERAGE

4.8
PROJECTED Ks: 100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 31% · 32% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 12% whiffSlider · 22% · 35% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Andrew Alvarez grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs Walbert Ureña grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

LAA LINEUP

1Zach Neto (R)hit 59% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2Mike Trout (R)hit 62% · HR 17%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
3Wade Meckler (L)hit 64% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 59% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
5Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 53% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
6Christian Moore (R)hit 49% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
7Josh Lowe (L)hit 49% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Denzer Guzman (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
9Adam Frazier (L)hit 48% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN

WSH LINEUP

1James Wood (L)hit 71% · HR 27%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
57%
SCORES A RUN
2Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 65% · HR 23%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
3Brady House (R)hit 65% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
4CJ Abrams (L)hit 64% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
5Dylan Crews (R)hit 62% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
6Yohandy Morales (R)hit 61% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Harry Ford (R)hit 54% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 54% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
9Jacob Young (R)hit 58% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAA WSH

Game Markets

LAA @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAA to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

33%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

LAA projects to outscore WSH by 0.26 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: LAA 4.89, WSH 4.64
Walbert Ureña (LAA) vs Andrew Alvarez (WSH)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Walbert Ureña

LAA SP · vs. WSH

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

61%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
71% to reach 5+ against WSH

Andrew Alvarez

WSH SP · vs. LAA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
53% to reach 5+ against LAA

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Walbert Ureña

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Walbert Ureña

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Walbert Ureña

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Walbert Ureña

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Walbert Ureña

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Yohandy Morales

WSH · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Walbert Ureña

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Walbert Ureña

Harry Ford

WSH · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 28%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Walbert Ureña

Jorbit Vivas

WSH · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Walbert Ureña

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Josh Lowe

LAA · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Alvarez

Adam Frazier

LAA · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Alvarez

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.