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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

NYM vs NYY

New York Mets at New York Yankees

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYM @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYM
0·0
NEW YORKNYY
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

NYM DUGOUTNYY DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

NYM Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.6
CT89.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

NYM Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · NYM LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYY to win

36%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYY -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYY

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYY wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYNYM Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

New York M wins

64%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

NYM STARTER

Zac Thornton

SHAKY
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 31% · 17% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 25% · 18% whiffSweeper · 17% · 25% whiff

NYY STARTER

Gerrit Cole

GOOD
5.5
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 49% · 22% whiffSlider · 20% · 29% whiffCurveball · 14% · 20% whiff

Gerrit Cole grades good (Pitching+ 106) vs Zac Thornton grades poor (Pitching+ 93)

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 64% · HR 20%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Juan Soto (L)hit 70% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Mark Vientos (R)hit 60% · HR 20%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Carson Benge (L)hit 61% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Marcus Semien (R)hit 52% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Christopher Morel (R)hit 47% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8A.J. Ewing (L)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 49% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Ben Rice (L)hit 69% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    58%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Cody Bellinger (L)hit 68% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Aaron Judgehit 72% · HR 28%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    25%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis García Jr. (L)hit 74% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    26%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Spencer Jones (L)hit 66% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 58% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ryan McMahon (L)hit 59% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Wells (L)hit 52% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Anthony Volpehit 56% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYM NYY

Game Markets

NYM @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

56%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

46%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

56%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore NYM by 1.15 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.26, NYY 5.41
  • Zac Thornton (NYM) vs Gerrit Cole (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against NYY
GC

Gerrit Cole

NYY SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

80%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against NYM
LJ

Luis García Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

51%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
AJ

Aaron Judge

NYY · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

26%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Zac Thornton
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
JS

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
SJ

Spencer Jones

NYY · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
CB

Cody Bellinger

NYY · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
MV

Mark Vientos

NYM · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
RM

Ryan McMahon

NYY · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zac Thornton
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
GJ

George Lombard Jr.

NYY · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zac Thornton
AV

Anthony Volpe

NYY · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zac Thornton
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
AW

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zac Thornton
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
FA

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Gerrit Cole
CM

Christopher Morel

NYM · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gerrit Cole

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.