MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Aaron Nola · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup
Bryce Harper · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
elite contact + lineup behind sees traffic
Alec Bohm · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
hot bat in run-producing spot
Chris Sale · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Edmundo Sosa · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
cleanup spot + hot bat = RBI machine
Aaron Nola · Under 16.5 <17 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Trea Turner · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
PHI @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
29%
Game Total
Over 8.5
36%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
22%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
25%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore ATL by 1.24 runs across 5,000 trials.
PHI SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
98%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
81%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
69%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
88%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
ATL SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
47%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
PHI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 51%.
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
PHI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
PHI · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
PHI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.
ATL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 9% against 10%.
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.
ATL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.
PHI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
HR-friendly, especially to LF.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.4–3.2 · projected total 7.6 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
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