AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPIT vs CHC
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Friday, September 11, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PIT @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PIT Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CHC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CHC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CHC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CHC wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDPittsburgh wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
PIT STARTER
Paul Skenes
AVERAGE- 5.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 105
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
CHC STARTER
Clay Holmes
AVERAGE- 3.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 98
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Clay Holmes grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Paul Skenes grades avg (Pitching+ 105)
PIT LINEUP
1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 64% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Oneil Cruz (L)hit 70% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 70% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
4Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 62% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
5Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 58% · HR 22%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Nick Gonzales (R)hit 64% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Jake Mangum (S)hit 59% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
8Jared Triolo (R)hit 60% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Henry Davis (R)hit 45% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
CHC LINEUP
1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 71% · HR 29%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
32%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
59%
SCORES A RUN
2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 69% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Michael Busch (L)hit 64% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Alex Bregman (R)hit 63% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Ian Happ (S)hit 61% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 65% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
7Michael Conforto (L)hit 62% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
8Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 59% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
9Carson Kelly (R)hit 57% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PIT @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
PIT to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
35%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
50%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
30%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
PIT projects to outscore CHC by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: PIT 5.04, CHC 4.21
- Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Clay Holmes (CHC)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Paul Skenes
PIT SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
32%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
39%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
26%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
- 65% to reach 5+ against CHC
Clay Holmes
CHC SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
48%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
- 30% to reach 5+ against PIT
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Paul Skenes
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Clay Holmes
Oneil Cruz
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Clay Holmes
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Clay Holmes
Michael Conforto
CHC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Paul Skenes
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Paul Skenes
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Paul Skenes
Rafael Flores Jr.
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Clay Holmes
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Paul Skenes
Konnor Griffin
PIT · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Clay Holmes
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Paul Skenes
Nick Gonzales
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Clay Holmes
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Paul Skenes
Jared Triolo
PIT · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Clay Holmes
Jake Mangum
PIT · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Clay Holmes
Pedro Ramírez
CHC · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Paul Skenes
Carson Kelly
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Paul Skenes
Henry Davis
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 14%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Clay Holmes
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.