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AI MODEL READ

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SD vs SF

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SD @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN DIEGOSD
0·0
SAN FRANCISCOSF
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

SD DUGOUTSF DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SD Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL83.7
SL84.8
FB95.7
FB93.9
CT88

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SD Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SF to win

44%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SF -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SF

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SF wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

San Diego wins

56%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

SF Over 3.5 runs

51%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 6-for-17 (.353) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · 79°F, 11mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGESD

SD STARTER

Michael King

AVERAGE
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 28% · 17% whiffChangeup · 27% · 28% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 29% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

SF STARTER

Cesar Perdomo

AVERAGE
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 33% whiffChangeup · 24% · 29% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Cesar Perdomo grades avg (Pitching+ 96) vs Michael King grades avg (Pitching+ 97)

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 73% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 60% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 67% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Campusano (R)hit 65% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 65% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 57% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Samad Taylor (R)hit 63% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Dustin Harris (L)hit 56% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Freddy Fermin (R)hit 50% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Jonah Cox (R)hit 61% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Rafael Devers (L)hit 64% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 68% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Osleivis Basabe (R)hit 56% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Turner Hill (L)hit 56% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Shay Whitcomb (R)hit 53% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 59% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Andrew Knizner (R)hit 46% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 50% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SD SF

Game Markets

SD @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

SF -1.5

37%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.38 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SD 4.10, SF 4.28
  • Michael King (SD) vs Cesar Perdomo (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MK

Michael King

SD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against SF
CP

Cesar Perdomo

SF SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against SD
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael King
RD

Rafael Devers

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael King
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Michael King
LC

Luis Campusano

SD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
ST

Samad Taylor

SD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
OB

Osleivis Basabe

SF · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
DH

Dustin Harris

SD · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Michael King
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Michael King
FF

Freddy Fermin

SD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
AK

Andrew Knizner

SF · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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