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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CIN vs MIL

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CIN @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CINCINNATICIN
0·0
MILWAUKEEMIL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

CIN DUGOUTMIL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.3
SL84.1
FB93.7
FB95.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIL to win

68%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Milwaukee wins

32%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL
LINEUP EDGEMIL

CIN STARTER

Brady Singer

SHAKY
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
88
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 50% · 16% whiffSlider · 27% · 31% whiffSweeper · 14% · 41% whiff

MIL STARTER

Shane Drohan

AVERAGE
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 30% whiffSlider · 21% · 40% whiffSinker · 21% · 14% whiff

Shane Drohan grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Brady Singer grades poor (Pitching+ 88)

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Dane Myers (R)hit 59% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 66% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Sal Stewart (R)hit 63% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 56% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 52% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6JJ Bleday (L)hit 50% · HR 15%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Juan Brito (S)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 51% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ke'Bryan Hayeshit 44% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Jackson Chourio (R)hit 76% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    76%

    1+ HIT

    40%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    60%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brice Turang (L)hit 69% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jake Bauers (L)hit 70% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    48%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Yelich (L)hit 63% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5William Contreras (R)hit 67% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 69% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Sal Frelick (L)hit 56% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cooper Pratt (R)hit 60% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9David Hamilton (L)hit 55% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CIN MIL

Game Markets

CIN @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

69%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

61%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

62%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

53%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

60%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CIN by 1.93 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CIN 3.85, MIL 5.78
  • Brady Singer (CIN) vs Shane Drohan (MIL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
BS

Brady Singer

CIN SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against MIL
SD

Shane Drohan

MIL SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against CIN
JB

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Singer
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 33% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Singer
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Singer
GM

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Singer
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shane Drohan
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shane Drohan
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Singer
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
CY

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 38% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Brady Singer
CP

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shane Drohan
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 52%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Shane Drohan
SF

Sal Frelick

MIL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
DH

David Hamilton

MIL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Brady Singer
HR

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Shane Drohan
JB

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan
KH

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 63%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.