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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CLE vs MIN

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CLE @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CLEVELANDCLE
0·0
MINNESOTAMIN
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

CLE DUGOUTMIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH86.4
SL86.8
FB95.1
FB94.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CLE Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIN to win

39%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCLE Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Minnesota wins

61%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECLE
LINEUP EDGECLE

CLE STARTER

Daniel Espino

GOOD
9.7
PROJECTED Ks
109
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 62% · 47% whiffSlider · 29% · 22% whiff

MIN STARTER

Connor Prielipp

AVERAGE
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Slider · 31% · 32% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 16% whiffCurveball · 18% · 39% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Connor Prielipp grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Daniel Espino grades good (Pitching+ 109)

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 62% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2José Ramírez (S)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Chase DeLauter (L)hit 65% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jo Adell (R)hit 63% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Angel Martínez (S)hit 57% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6David Fry (R)hit 44% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Travis Bazzana (L)hit 52% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Hedges (R)hit 49% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 54% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brooks Lee (S)hit 53% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 55% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Bell (S)hit 51% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Royce Lewis (R)hit 47% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kaelen Culpepper (R)hit 48% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Victor Caratini (S)hit 43% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Martinhit 42% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    13%

    RBI

    3%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Emmanuel Rodriguezhit 39% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    39%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CLE MIN

Game Markets

CLE @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

30%

Game Total

Over 8.5

26%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

30%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

22%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

19%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore MIN by 1.01 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 3.74, MIN 2.72
  • Daniel Espino (CLE) vs Connor Prielipp (MIN)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
DE

Daniel Espino

CLE SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

98%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

67%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

89%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.7 strikeouts
  • 98% to reach 5+ against MIN
CP

Connor Prielipp

MIN SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

61%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against CLE
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Daniel Espino
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Daniel Espino
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Daniel Espino
DF

David Fry

CLE · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Espino
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Daniel Espino
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 52%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
AH

Austin Hedges

CLE · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 54%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
KC

Kaelen Culpepper

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 54%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Daniel Espino
VC

Victor Caratini

MIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 54%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Espino
AM

Austin Martin

MIN · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

13%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 54%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Espino
ER

Emmanuel Rodriguez

MIN · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

40%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

18%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 54%.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Daniel Espino

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.