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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

COL vs DET

Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the COL @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

COLORADOCOL
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

COL DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

COL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.7
SL84.7
FB93
FB95.6
SL86.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

COL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCOL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

DET Over 4.5 runs

45%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 8-for-20 (.400) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEDET
LINEUP EDGEDET

COL STARTER

Gabriel Hughes

SHAKY
3.0
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 52% · 18% whiffChangeup · 11% · 11% whiffCurveball · 11% · 33% whiff

DET STARTER

Jackson Jobe

AVERAGE
3.0
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 17% whiffSlider · 23% · 20% whiffSinker · 18% · 15% whiff

Jackson Jobe grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Gabriel Hughes grades poor (Pitching+ 92)

COL LINEUP

  1. 1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 71% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Connor Norby (R)hit 63% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Hunter Goodman (R)hit 61% · HR 21%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4TJ Rumfield (L)hit 66% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Cole Carrigg (S)hit 62% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Karroshit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jordan Beck (R)hit 52% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Adael Amador (S)hit 55% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 53% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 70% · HR 14%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 68% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Colt Keith (L)hit 67% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Riley Greene (L)hit 73% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Eduardo Valencia (R)hit 69% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Max Clark (L)hit 64% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 60% · HR 20%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Brett Callahan (L)hit 61% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9John Peck (R)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

COL DET

Game Markets

COL @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

DET -1.5

42%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore COL by 0.67 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: COL 4.44, DET 5.11
  • Gabriel Hughes (COL) vs Jackson Jobe (DET)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GH

Gabriel Hughes

COL SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against DET
JJ

Jackson Jobe

DET SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

39%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against COL
HG

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gabriel Hughes
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gabriel Hughes
EV

Eduardo Valencia

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Gabriel Hughes
JM

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Gabriel Hughes
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Gabriel Hughes
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gabriel Hughes
TR

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gabriel Hughes
CN

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
BC

Brett Callahan

DET · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Gabriel Hughes
CC

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
KK

Kyle Karros

COL · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
JP

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Gabriel Hughes
AA

Adael Amador

COL · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
ET

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Jackson Jobe
JB

Jordan Beck

COL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Jobe

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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