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CWS vs STL

Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CWS @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCWS
0·0
ST. LOUISSTL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CWS DUGOUTSTL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.2
CV78
FB95.3
SL86.5
FB94.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CWS Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCWS Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGECWS

CWS STARTER

Sean Newcomb

AVERAGE
3.7
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 38% · 28% whiffSlurve · 32% · 29% whiffSinker · 22% · 10% whiff

STL STARTER

Kyle Leahy

AVERAGE
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 17% whiffCurveball · 17% · 27% whiffSlider · 16% · 23% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Kyle Leahy grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Sean Newcomb grades avg (Pitching+ 101)

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 65% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Kyle Teel (L)hit 61% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 63% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 61% · HR 33%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    33%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 63% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Tristan Peters (L)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Chase Meidroth (R)hit 57% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Colson Montgomery (L)hit 51% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Braden Montgomery (S)hit 53% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

STL LINEUP

  1. 1José Fermín (R)hit 63% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Iván Herrera (R)hit 65% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alec Burleson (L)hit 71% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Joshua Báez (R)hit 65% · HR 19%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Leo Bernal (S)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nolan Gorman (L)hit 53% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Thomas Saggese (R)hit 62% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Masyn Winnhit 56% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nathan Church (L)hit 54% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS STL

Game Markets

CWS @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

STL -1.5

38%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.23 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CWS 4.51, STL 4.72
  • Sean Newcomb (CWS) vs Kyle Leahy (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SN

Sean Newcomb

CWS SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against STL
KL

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

10%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

35%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against CWS
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Sean Newcomb
JB

Joshua Báez

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Sean Newcomb
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
KT

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
AB

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Sean Newcomb
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Newcomb
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Newcomb
NG

Nolan Gorman

STL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Newcomb
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Newcomb
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Newcomb
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Sean Newcomb
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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