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AI MODEL READ

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HOU vs TB

Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU
0·0
TAMPA BAYTB
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

HOU DUGOUTTB DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB95
FB94.2
FB93.7
CV79.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

HOU Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TB to win

34%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TB -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TB

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TB wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYHOU Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Houston wins

66%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETB
LINEUP EDGETB

HOU STARTER

Hayden Wesneski

AVERAGE
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 30% · 39% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 13% whiffSinker · 17% · 13% whiff

TB STARTER

Freddy Peralta

AVERAGE
5.5
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 53% · 22% whiffChangeup · 23% · 29% whiffCurveball · 14% · 33% whiff

Freddy Peralta grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Hayden Wesneski grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 56% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Isaac Paredes (R)hit 54% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jose Altuve (R)hit 52% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Yainer Diaz (R)hit 60% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Daulton Varsho (L)hit 47% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Walker (R)hit 47% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Cam Smith (R)hit 46% · HR 13%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Taylor Trammell (L)hit 39% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    39%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Vázquez (R)hit 38% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    38%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    15%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    17%

    SCORES A RUN

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 65% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 63% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 65% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Liam Hicks (L)hit 58% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 55% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Chandler Simpson (L)hit 62% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Cedric Mullins (L)hit 43% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Richie Palacios (L)hit 48% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jorge Mateo (R)hit 45% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

HOU TB

Game Markets

HOU @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

TB -1.5

31%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore TB by 0.32 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 3.88, TB 3.56
  • Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs Freddy Peralta (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HW

Hayden Wesneski

HOU SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against TB
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against HOU
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
YD

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
YD

Yainer Diaz

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
LH

Liam Hicks

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 18% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
RP

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 50%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
CM

Cedric Mullins

TB · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 45%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
JM

Jorge Mateo

TB · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 22% against 23%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
DV

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 55%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
TT

Taylor Trammell

HOU · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

40%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 8% against 11%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
CV

Christian Vázquez

HOU · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

40%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

16%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

14%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 55%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.