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AI MODEL READ

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KC vs BOS

Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
BOSTONBOS
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTBOS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

KC Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.1
SL85.7
FB94.8
FB94.3
FB94.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

KC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BOS to win

57%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BOS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BOS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BOS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYKC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 23 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Boston wins

43%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBOS
LINEUP EDGEBOS

KC STARTER

Noah Cameron

AVERAGE
5.6
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 18% whiffCutter · 21% · 22% whiffChangeup · 21% · 36% whiff

BOS STARTER

Payton Tolle

GOOD
6.9
PROJECTED Ks
113
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 30% whiffSinker · 23% · 17% whiffCutter · 20% · 29% whiff

Payton Tolle grades good (Pitching+ 113) vs Noah Cameron grades avg (Pitching+ 105)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 67% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 74% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Salvador Perez (R)hit 68% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Vinnie Pasquantino (L)hit 65% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nick Loftin (R)hit 56% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Michael Massey (L)hit 66% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7John Rave (L)hit 57% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Matthew Lugo (R)hit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Kyle Isbel (L)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 72% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mickey Gasper (S)hit 68% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Adley Rutschman (S)hit 66% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 68% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Trevor Story (R)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Sogard (S)hit 64% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jarren Duran (L)hit 61% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Caleb Durbin (R)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Anthony Seiglerhit 60% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC BOS

Game Markets

KC @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

42%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore KC by 0.77 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.78, BOS 4.56
  • Noah Cameron (KC) vs Payton Tolle (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NC

Noah Cameron

KC SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against BOS
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

26%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.9 strikeouts
  • 84% to reach 5+ against KC
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Noah Cameron
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Noah Cameron
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Payton Tolle
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Payton Tolle
MG

Mickey Gasper

BOS · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Noah Cameron
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Noah Cameron
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Payton Tolle
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Noah Cameron
VP

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Payton Tolle
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Payton Tolle
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Noah Cameron
AS

Anthony Seigler

BOS · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Noah Cameron
JR

John Rave

KC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Payton Tolle
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
ML

Matthew Lugo

KC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Payton Tolle
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 66%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Payton Tolle
KI

Kyle Isbel

KC · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Payton Tolle

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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