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AI MODEL READ

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LAA vs WSH

Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAA @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAA
0·0
WASHINGTONWSH
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

LAA DUGOUTWSH DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAA Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.4
CV78.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LAA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

WSH to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

WSH -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL WSH

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

WSH wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLAA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAA
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

LAA STARTER

Grayson Rodriguez

AVERAGE
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 53% · 17% whiffChangeup · 26% · 35% whiffCurveball · 11% · 23% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

WSH STARTER

Jake Irvin

AVERAGE
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 30% · 20% whiffCurveball · 24% · 36% whiffSinker · 19% · 12% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.

Jake Irvin grades avg (Pitching+ 96) vs Grayson Rodriguez grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 67% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trout (R)hit 65% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jose Siri (R)hit 58% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 63% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Christian Moore (R)hit 55% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Oswald Peraza (R)hit 54% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Denzer Guzman (R)hit 55% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Kyren Paris (R)hit 56% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Heineman (S)hit 49% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1James Wood (L)hit 66% · HR 23%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Abimelec Ortiz (L)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dylan Crews (R)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4CJ Abrams (L)hit 62% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brady House (R)hit 59% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Daylen Lile (L)hit 62% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 63% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 53% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jacob Young (R)hit 54% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAA WSH

Game Markets

LAA @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

62%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

38%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

WSH projects to outscore LAA by 0.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAA 4.95, WSH 5.23
  • Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) vs Jake Irvin (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GR

Grayson Rodriguez

LAA SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against WSH
JI

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against LAA
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Irvin
JS

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jake Irvin
KR

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
VG

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Irvin
KP

Kyren Paris

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Irvin
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
AO

Abimelec Ortiz

WSH · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
BH

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
CM

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
OP

Oswald Peraza

LAA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin
JY

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
JV

Jorbit Vivas

WSH · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
TH

Tyler Heineman

LAA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Irvin

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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