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AI MODEL READ

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PHI vs ATL

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PHI @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PHILADELPHIAPHI
0·0
ATLANTAATL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PHI DUGOUTATL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

PHI Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.9
SL86
SL84.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

PHI Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · PHI LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

ATL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

ATL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL ATL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

ATL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYPHI Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Atlanta wins

50%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

PHI STARTER

Andrew Painter

GOOD
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 15% whiffSlider · 18% · 36% whiffSweeper · 17% · 26% whiff

ATL STARTER

Grant Holmes

SHAKY
4.3
PROJECTED Ks
91
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Slider · 37% · 39% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 17% whiffSinker · 12% · 15% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Grant Holmes grades poor (Pitching+ 91) vs Andrew Painter grades good (Pitching+ 106)

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 67% · HR 35%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    35%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 64% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 70% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 68% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 62% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryson Stott (L)hit 57% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 61% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Justin Crawford (L)hit 56% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 71% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 65% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 67% · HR 23%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ozzie Albies (S)hit 59% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Harris II (L)hit 68% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 59% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Austin Riley (R)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Sean Murphy (R)hit 51% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ha-Seong Kim (R)hit 46% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PHI ATL

Game Markets

PHI @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

35%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.22 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.65, ATL 4.56
  • Andrew Painter (PHI) vs Grant Holmes (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AP

Andrew Painter

PHI SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against ATL
GH

Grant Holmes

ATL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

28%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against PHI
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

35%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Grant Holmes
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Grant Holmes
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Andrew Painter
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Andrew Painter
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Andrew Painter
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Grant Holmes
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Grant Holmes
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grant Holmes
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grant Holmes
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Painter
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Painter
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grant Holmes
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Painter
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grant Holmes
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Painter
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grant Holmes
HK

Ha-Seong Kim

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Painter

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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