AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPIT vs CHC
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Saturday, September 12, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PIT @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PIT Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CHC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CHC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CHC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CHC wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDChicago C wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
PIT STARTER
Bubba Chandler
GOOD- 3.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 106
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
CHC STARTER
Matthew Boyd
AVERAGE- 4.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 101
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Matthew Boyd grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Bubba Chandler grades good (Pitching+ 106)
PIT LINEUP
1Oneil Cruz (L)hit 74% · HR 26%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
60%
SCORES A RUN
2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 71% · HR 23%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 68% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
4Konnor Griffin (R)hit 66% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Ryan O'Hearnhit 67% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
6Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 61% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Jake Mangum (S)hit 65% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
9Henry Davis (R)hit 49% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
CHC LINEUP
1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 70% · HR 31%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
33%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
56%
SCORES A RUN
2Alex Bregman (R)hit 65% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
3Michael Busch (L)hit 62% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
4Ian Happ (S)hit 59% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Nico Hoerner (R)hit 64% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Michael Conforto (L)hit 57% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Carson Kelly (R)hit 57% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 57% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
9Tyrone Taylor (R)hit 57% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PIT @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
PIT to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
62%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
35%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
53%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
51%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 10.31 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: PIT 5.24, CHC 5.07
- Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Bubba Chandler
PIT SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
36%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
- 33% to reach 5+ against CHC
Matthew Boyd
CHC SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
48%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 38% to reach 5+ against PIT
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Oneil Cruz
PIT · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Matthew Boyd
Brandon Lowe
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Matthew Boyd
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Matthew Boyd
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5
- Facing Matthew Boyd
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Michael Conforto
CHC · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Konnor Griffin
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Matthew Boyd
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Jake Mangum
PIT · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Matthew Boyd
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Spencer Horwitz
PIT · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Matthew Boyd
Jacob Gonzalez
PIT · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Matthew Boyd
Pedro Ramírez
CHC · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Tyrone Taylor
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Carson Kelly
CHC · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Henry Davis
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 14%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Matthew Boyd
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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