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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SD vs SF

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SD @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN DIEGOSD
0·0
SAN FRANCISCOSF
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

SD DUGOUTSF DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SD Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.9
SL85.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SD Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SF to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SF -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SF

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SF wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 13 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

SF Over 3.5 runs

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 6-for-17 (.353) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · pitcher-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

SD STARTER

Nick Pivetta

GOOD
3.6
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 54% · 22% whiffCurveball · 21% · 30% whiffCutter · 12% · 4% whiff

SF STARTER

Logan Webb

AVERAGE
3.6
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 29% · 12% whiffChangeup · 24% · 28% whiffSweeper · 20% · 24% whiff

Logan Webb grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Nick Pivetta grades good (Pitching+ 106)

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 74% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Dustin Harris (L)hit 65% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 64% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Campusano (R)hit 63% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 70% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Austin Hays (R)hit 60% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 58% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Samad Taylor (R)hit 59% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Drew Gilbert (L)hit 61% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Rafael Devers (L)hit 72% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 65% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jonah Cox (R)hit 63% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Turner Hill (L)hit 57% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 63% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Shay Whitcomb (R)hit 53% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Drew Cavanaugh (L)hit 58% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 53% · HR 6%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SD SF

Game Markets

SD @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

SF -1.5

31%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore SF by 0.38 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 4.29, SF 3.90
  • Nick Pivetta (SD) vs Logan Webb (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NP

Nick Pivetta

SD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

18%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

30%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

19%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against SF
LW

Logan Webb

SF SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

78%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against SD
RD

Rafael Devers

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Pivetta
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Webb
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Pivetta
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Webb
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Webb
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Nick Pivetta
DH

Dustin Harris

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Logan Webb
LC

Luis Campusano

SD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 33% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Webb
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Pivetta
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Pivetta
DG

Drew Gilbert

SF · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Nick Pivetta
AH

Austin Hays

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Webb
ST

Samad Taylor

SD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Webb
DC

Drew Cavanaugh

SF · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Pivetta
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Webb
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nick Pivetta
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Webb
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nick Pivetta

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.