AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs MIL
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, September 13, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMilwaukee wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CIN STARTER
Chase Burns
GOOD- 6.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 115
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
MIL STARTER
Robert Gasser
AVERAGE- 4.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 97
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Robert Gasser grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Chase Burns grades good (Pitching+ 115)
CIN LINEUP
1Dane Myers (R)hit 61% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 72% · HR 26%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 65% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 54% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 54% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
6JJ Bleday (L)hit 52% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Juan Brito (S)hit 54% · HR 10%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Jose Trevino (R)hit 47% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 51% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
MIL LINEUP
1Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Jackson Chourio (R)hit 67% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
3Brice Turang (L)hit 60% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Gary Sánchez (R)hit 54% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Jake Bauers (L)hit 59% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
6Christian Yelich (L)hit 55% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
7Joey Ortiz (R)hit 55% · HR 7%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Luis Lara (S)hit 56% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Cooper Pratt (R)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moIII · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
44%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
36%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.32 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: CIN 4.11, MIL 4.21
- Chase Burns (CIN) vs Robert Gasser (MIL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Chase Burns
CIN SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
20%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
26%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
28%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
17%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
- 79% to reach 5+ against MIL
Robert Gasser
MIL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
27%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
41%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 39% to reach 5+ against CIN
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Gary Sánchez
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Chase Burns
Dane Myers
CIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Robert Gasser
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 32% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Robert Gasser
Luis Lara
MIL · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Chase Burns
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Chase Burns
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Robert Gasser
Juan Brito
CIN · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 60%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Robert Gasser
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Héctor Rodríguez
CIN · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Robert Gasser
Jose Trevino
CIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 60%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.