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AI MODEL READ

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HOU vs TB

Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays

Sunday, September 13, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU
0·0
TAMPA BAYTB
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

HOU DUGOUTTB DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.8
FB95.4
SL85.8
SL86.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

HOU Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TB to win

48%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TB -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TB

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TB wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYHOU Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Tampa Bay wins

52%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETB
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

HOU STARTER

Hayden Wesneski

AVERAGE
3.4
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 30% · 39% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 13% whiffSinker · 17% · 13% whiff

TB STARTER

Freddy Peralta

AVERAGE
5.2
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 53% · 22% whiffChangeup · 23% · 29% whiffCurveball · 14% · 33% whiff

Freddy Peralta grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Hayden Wesneski grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 60% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 70% · HR 28%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 55% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jose Altuve (R)hit 54% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Yainer Diaz (R)hit 63% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Daulton Varsho (L)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Christian Walker (R)hit 52% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cam Smith (R)hit 49% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Taylor Trammell (L)hit 44% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 63% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 65% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 58% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 63% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Richie Palacios (L)hit 52% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nick Madrigal (R)hit 51% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nick Fortes (R)hit 50% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

HOU TB

Game Markets

HOU @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

TB -1.5

34%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.64 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: HOU 3.83, TB 3.81
  • Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs Freddy Peralta (TB)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
HW

Hayden Wesneski

HOU SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

47%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against TB
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

53%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against HOU
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
YD

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
YD

Yainer Diaz

HOU · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 52%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
RP

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JD

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
NM

Nick Madrigal

TB · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
NF

Nick Fortes

TB · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Hayden Wesneski
DV

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
TT

Taylor Trammell

HOU · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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