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LAD vs MIA

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

Sunday, September 13, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD
0·0
MIAMIMIA
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

LAD DUGOUTMIA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL86.4
SL86.3
FB94.2
CV77.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAD Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIA to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLAD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

LAD STARTER

Emmet Sheehan

GOOD
7.0
PROJECTED Ks
108
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 43% · 30% whiffSlider · 30% · 38% whiffChangeup · 16% · 24% whiff

MIA STARTER

Eury Pérez

AVERAGE
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 38% · 23% whiffSinker · 18% · 16% whiffSlider · 17% · 44% whiff

Eury Pérez grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Emmet Sheehan grades good (Pitching+ 108)

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Mookie Betts (R)hit 64% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Freddie Freeman (L)hit 67% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Max Muncy (L)hit 60% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Will Smith (R)hit 61% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Kyle Tucker (L)hit 54% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Josue De Paula (L)hit 55% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Alex Call (R)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Miguel Rojas (R)hit 55% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Alex Freeland (S)hit 50% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Stowers (L)hit 55% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 55% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Otto Lopez (R)hit 63% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Griffin Conine (L)hit 57% · HR 23%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Xavier Edwardshit 55% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jakob Marsee (L)hit 44% · HR 5%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Javier Sanoja (R)hit 55% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Joe Mack (L)hit 46% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Esteury Ruiz (R)hit 42% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD MIA

Game Markets

LAD @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

28%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

28%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore MIA by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAD 3.98, MIA 3.40
  • Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs Eury Pérez (MIA)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
ES

Emmet Sheehan

LAD SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

23%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
  • 89% to reach 5+ against MIA
EP

Eury Pérez

MIA SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

31%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

32%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against LAD
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
MM

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eury Pérez
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Eury Pérez
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eury Pérez
WS

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Eury Pérez
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
KT

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eury Pérez
JP

Josue De Paula

LAD · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Eury Pérez
JM

Joe Mack

MIA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 48%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eury Pérez
XE

Xavier Edwards

MIA · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 5
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
AC

Alex Call

LAD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eury Pérez
AF

Alex Freeland

LAD · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eury Pérez
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 57%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
ER

Esteury Ruiz

MIA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 9% against 11%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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