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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

ATL vs CHC

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

Monday, September 14, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATL @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATLANTAATL
1·0
CHICAGOCHC
TOP 10-00 OUT

FIELD

ATL DUGOUTCHC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH84.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

ATL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYATL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 1

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

ATL STARTER

Martín Pérez

SHAKY
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
91
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 35% · 8% whiffChangeup · 31% · 35% whiffCutter · 22% · 18% whiff

CHC STARTER

Kevin Gausman

AVERAGE
5.6
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 51% · 15% whiffSplit-Finger · 38% · 42% whiff

Kevin Gausman grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Martín Pérez grades poor (Pitching+ 91)

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 72% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    59%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Drake Baldwin (L)hit 72% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 69% · HR 30%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ozzie Albies (S)hit 62% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Harris II (L)hit 72% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 63% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Austin Riley (R)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Sean Murphy (R)hit 55% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ha-Seong Kim (R)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 73% · HR 38%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    38%

    HOME RUN

    57%

    2+ BASES

    45%

    3+ BASES

    40%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    64%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 70% · HR 25%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Michael Busch (L)hit 62% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alex Bregman (R)hit 65% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ian Happ (S)hit 61% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 62% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Conforto (L)hit 58% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Carson Kelly (R)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ATL CHC

Game Markets

ATL @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

38%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.55 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.65, CHC 4.90
  • Martín Pérez (ATL) vs Kevin Gausman (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MP

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against CHC
KG

Kevin Gausman

CHC SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against ATL
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

38%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

61%

Total Bases

3+ bases

48%

Total Bases

4+ bases

42%

RBIs

1+ RBI

51%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Martín Pérez
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Martín Pérez
MC

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Martín Pérez
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Martín Pérez
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
PR

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Martín Pérez
CK

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Martín Pérez
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 30% against 34%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman
HK

Ha-Seong Kim

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kevin Gausman

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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