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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CWS vs CLE

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

Monday, September 14, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CWS @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCWS
0·0
CLEVELANDCLE
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

CWS DUGOUTCLE DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL83.8
SL85.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CWS Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CLE to win

40%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CLE -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CLE

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CLE wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCWS Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Chicago WS wins

60%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECLE
LINEUP EDGECLE

CWS STARTER

Davis Martin

SHAKY
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
85
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 25% whiffSinker · 19% · 7% whiffCurveball · 14% · 41% whiff

CLE STARTER

Foster Griffin

AVERAGE
3.9
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 33% · 20% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 16% · 17% whiffSweeper · 14% · 32% whiff

Foster Griffin grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Davis Martin grades poor (Pitching+ 85)

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 60% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Kyle Teel (L)hit 51% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 57% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 50% · HR 28%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 53% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Tristan Peters (L)hit 56% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Colson Montgomery (L)hit 44% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Chase Meidroth (R)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Braden Montgomery (S)hit 44% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 68% · HR 6%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2José Ramírez (S)hit 65% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Chase DeLauter (L)hit 72% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jo Adell (R)hit 66% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Travis Bazzana (L)hit 58% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Angel Martínez (S)hit 59% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 60% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Patrick Bailey (S)hit 53% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 56% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS CLE

Game Markets

CWS @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

44%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore CWS by 0.97 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CWS 4.00, CLE 4.97
  • Davis Martin (CWS) vs Foster Griffin (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DM

Davis Martin

CWS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

25%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against CLE
FG

Foster Griffin

CLE SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

57%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against CWS
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Foster Griffin
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Davis Martin
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Davis Martin
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Foster Griffin
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Davis Martin
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
KT

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Davis Martin
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Davis Martin
AB

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Davis Martin
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 30% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Davis Martin
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Facing Davis Martin
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Davis Martin
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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