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AI MODEL READ

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DET vs TOR

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays

Monday, September 14, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the DET @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

DETROITDET
0·0
TORONTOTOR
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

DET DUGOUTTOR DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

DET Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.5
CV78.1
CV79.1
FB95.8
SL83.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

DET Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TOR to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TOR -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TOR

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TOR wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYDET Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 13 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGETOR

DET STARTER

Troy Melton

AVERAGE
3.4
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 18% whiffCutter · 22% · 21% whiffSlider · 17% · 33% whiff

TOR STARTER

José Soriano

AVERAGE
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 29% · 19% whiffCurveball · 26% · 44% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 22% · 20% whiff

José Soriano grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Troy Melton grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 67% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Gleyber Torres (R)hit 62% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Riley Greene (L)hit 66% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Dillon Dingler (R)hit 60% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brett Callahan (L)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Max Clark (L)hit 55% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 52% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Zach McKinstry (L)hit 47% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 52% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

TOR LINEUP

  1. 1Brett Bateman (L)hit 68% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2George Springer (R)hit 68% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 71% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alejandro Kirk (R)hit 66% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathan Lukes (L)hit 64% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 63% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andrés Giménez (L)hit 58% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Josh Smith (L)hit 55% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ernie Clement (R)hit 59% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

DET TOR

Game Markets

DET @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

38%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.55 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.17, TOR 4.38
  • Troy Melton (DET) vs José Soriano (TOR)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
TM

Troy Melton

DET SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

78%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against TOR
JS

José Soriano

TOR SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against DET
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Troy Melton
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing José Soriano
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing José Soriano
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing José Soriano
GS

George Springer

TOR · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Troy Melton
VJ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Troy Melton
AK

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Troy Melton
BB

Brett Bateman

TOR · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Troy Melton
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing José Soriano
NL

Nathan Lukes

TOR · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Troy Melton
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing José Soriano
EC

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Troy Melton
AG

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Troy Melton
JS

Josh Smith

TOR · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Troy Melton
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing José Soriano
BC

Brett Callahan

DET · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing José Soriano
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing José Soriano
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing José Soriano

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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