AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAD vs CIN

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds

Monday, September 14, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD

0·0

CINCINNATICIN

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.1

CV78.4

SL84.3

CV79.8

FB94.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAD Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYLAD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

LAD Over 4.5 runs

55%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 11-for-38 (.289) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD

LINEUP EDGELAD

LAD STARTER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

GOOD

7.0
PROJECTED Ks: 110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 29% whiffSplit-Finger · 27% · 34% whiffCutter · 15% · 24% whiff

CIN STARTER

Rhett Lowder

SHAKY

2.6
PROJECTED Ks: 92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 29% · 7% whiffSlider · 27% · 32% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 21% · 13% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Rhett Lowder grades poor (Pitching+ 92) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto grades good (Pitching+ 110)

LAD LINEUP

1Tommy Edman (S)hit 67% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
2Mookie Betts (R)hit 70% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Will Smith (R)hit 71% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
4Kyle Tucker (L)hit 66% · HR 14%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 72% · HR 25%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
23%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
6Miguel Rojas (R)hit 66% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
7Max Muncy (L)hit 62% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
8Enrique Hernández (R)hit 59% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
9Josue De Paula (L)hit 60% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

1Dane Myers (R)hit 59% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 68% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 65% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 56% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 50% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
6Juan Brito (S)hit 51% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
7JJ Bleday (L)hit 48% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
21%
SCORES A RUN
9Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 46% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD CIN

Game Markets

LAD @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

29%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

23%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

58%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore CIN by 1.69 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: LAD 5.70, CIN 4.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs Rhett Lowder (CIN)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD SP · vs. CIN

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

25%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

99%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
87% to reach 5+ against CIN

Rhett Lowder

CIN SP · vs. LAD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
13% to reach 5+ against LAD

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Rhett Lowder

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Rhett Lowder

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Rhett Lowder

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Rhett Lowder

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Rhett Lowder

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Rhett Lowder

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Rhett Lowder

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Rhett Lowder

Josue De Paula

LAD · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Rhett Lowder

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 28% against 30%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 15%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 63%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 63%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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