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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

NYY vs MIN

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins

Monday, September 14, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYY @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYY
0·0
MINNESOTAMIN
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

NYY DUGOUTMIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB91.9
FB92.2
FB94.2
FB94.7
CV78.8
FB94.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

NYY Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIN to win

33%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYNYY Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 6

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Minnesota wins

67%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

NYY Over 4.5 runs

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

NYY STARTER

Max Fried

GOOD
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
109
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 22% · 27% whiffSinker · 22% · 21% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 18% · 19% whiff

MIN STARTER

Bailey Ober

SHAKY
2.6
PROJECTED Ks
88
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 34% · 22% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 15% whiffSlider · 18% · 13% whiff

Bailey Ober grades poor (Pitching+ 88) vs Max Fried grades good (Pitching+ 109)

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Ben Rice (L)hit 71% · HR 37%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    37%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    38%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    61%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Cody Bellinger (L)hit 65% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Aaron Judge (R)hit 70% · HR 32%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    32%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    25%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis García Jr. (L)hit 72% · HR 33%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    33%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    48%

    RBI

    26%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Spencer Jones (L)hit 64% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 53% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ryan McMahon (L)hit 55% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Wells (L)hit 48% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9José Caballero (R)hit 53% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 62% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brooks Lee (S)hit 59% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 63% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ryan Jeffers (R)hit 59% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Josh Bell (S)hit 60% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Emmanuel Rodriguez (L)hit 53% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Victor Caratini (S)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ryan Kreidler (R)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Walker Jenkins (L)hit 45% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYY MIN

Game Markets

NYY @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

27%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore MIN by 0.96 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.70, MIN 3.74
  • Max Fried (NYY) vs Bailey Ober (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MF

Max Fried

NYY SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against MIN
BO

Bailey Ober

MIN SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

35%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
  • 12% to reach 5+ against NYY
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

37%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

41%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bailey Ober
LJ

Luis García Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

26%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bailey Ober
AJ

Aaron Judge

NYY · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Bailey Ober
SJ

Spencer Jones

NYY · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bailey Ober
CB

Cody Bellinger

NYY · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bailey Ober
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Fried
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Max Fried
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Max Fried
RM

Ryan McMahon

NYY · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bailey Ober
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Max Fried
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Max Fried
ER

Emmanuel Rodriguez

MIN · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Max Fried
GJ

George Lombard Jr.

NYY · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bailey Ober
JC

José Caballero

NYY · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bailey Ober
VC

Victor Caratini

MIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Fried
RK

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Fried
AW

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bailey Ober
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Fried

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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