BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
88-70 · +2 NL WEST · W1 · 8-2 L10
@MON 8:40 PM ETCOL HOME PARK
57-101 · +5 NL WEST · L3 · 2-8 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Jansen Visconti K-1.0%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 3-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Casey Mize
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.96
IP
127.1
K/9
7.7
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS6.49 ERA · 13.1% K · 9.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
25%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerSlurve
Tomoyuki Sugano
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+81
ERA
5.36
IP
147.2
K/9
5.5
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.33
L5 STARTS7.27 ERA · 17.4% K · 7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
22%
20%
19%
11%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSinkerSliderSweeperCutterCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS9 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Fernando Tatis Jr. · Under 2.5 <3 Total Bases

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

-130 Caesars57% book71% +15pp

Tomoyuki Sugano · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

+140 DraftKings42% book56% +15pp

Xander Bogaerts · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

-115 Bovada53% book65% +11pp

Manny Machado · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

+120 Bovada45% book56% +10pp

Jake Cronenworth · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher

-135 Bovada57% book66% +9pp

Jackson Merrill · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

+116 BetOnline.46% book55% +9pp

Cole Carrigg · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

-145 BetMGM59% book66% +7pp

Luis Campusano · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

-115 Caesars53% book59% +6pp

Cole Carrigg · Under 0.5 <1 Hits

hot stretch + soft matchup

+190 Fanatics34% book40% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 54%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SD COL

Game Markets

SD @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

76%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

73%

Run Line

COL -1.5

32%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

67%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

61%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore COL by 0.78 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 6.63, COL 5.85
  • Walker Buehler (SD) vs Kyle Freeland (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
WB

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against COL
KF

Kyle Freeland

COL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against SD
TF

Ty France

SD · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

82%

Hits

2+ hits

48%

Total Bases

2+ bases

63%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

54%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

29%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 29% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

52%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

29%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 29% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
HG

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Walker Buehler
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

84%

Hits

2+ hits

51%

Total Bases

2+ bases

63%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 51% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

43%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
MM

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Walker Buehler
DH

Dustin Harris

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
JM

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Walker Buehler
LC

Luis Campusano

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
TR

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
CN

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 71%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
KK

Kyle Karros

COL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler
FF

Freddy Fermin

SD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
CC

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 71%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Walker Buehler
AA

Adael Amador

COL · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 71%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
ET

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 71%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CASEY MIZE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.708
vs Left-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.506
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.750K%21.9%

TOMOYUKI SUGANO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%13.3%OPS-against.814
vs Left-handedK%15.3%OPS-against.862
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs CASEY MIZE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs TOMOYUKI SUGANO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 3·COL 1
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
SD 11·COL 4
15 played · 4 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%COL
SD 156 · COL 163 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-17SD 9-2 · Blowout
2026-09-17SD 9-3 · Blowout
2026-09-16COL 9-3 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.328L15 team wOBA
+12 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

COL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
VISCONTI
Called K rate-1.0% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr239

Hitter-friendly zone · slight edge to batter props.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PADRES 54%

Mean score sim 6.6–5.9 · projected total 12.5 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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