AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SEA vs LAA

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

Monday, September 14, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SEA @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SEATTLESEA

0·0

LOS ANGELESLAA

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV76.9

SL86.2

CH85.4

CH87.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SEA Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYSEA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 23 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA

LINEUP EDGEEVEN

SEA STARTER

Logan Gilbert

GOOD

7.2
PROJECTED Ks: 111
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 23% whiffSlider · 25% · 37% whiffSplit-Finger · 15% · 41% whiff

LAA STARTER

Ryan Johnson

SHAKY

4.2
PROJECTED Ks: 87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 38% · 23% whiffSplit-Finger · 22% · 32% whiffSweeper · 21% · 31% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Ryan Johnson grades poor (Pitching+ 87) vs Logan Gilbert grades good (Pitching+ 111)

SEA LINEUP

1J.P. Crawford (L)hit 60% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 65% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 67% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 52% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 60% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
6Josh Naylor (L)hit 61% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Michael Arroyo (R)hit 54% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Cole Young (L)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
9Weston Wilson (R)hit 49% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

1Zach Neto (R)hit 70% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
2Mike Trout (R)hit 70% · HR 17%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Jose Siri (R)hit 56% · HR 15%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 61% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
5Christian Moore (R)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
6Denzer Guzman (R)hit 54% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
7Travis d'Arnaud (R)hit 51% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Kyren Paris (R)hit 52% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9Wade Meckler (L)hit 59% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SEA LAA

Game Markets

SEA @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

67%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

29%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

21%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

59%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore LAA by 2.10 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: SEA 5.74, LAA 3.64
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs Ryan Johnson (LAA)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Logan Gilbert

SEA SP · vs. LAA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

27%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
88% to reach 5+ against LAA

Ryan Johnson

LAA SP · vs. SEA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
41% to reach 5+ against SEA

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Logan Gilbert

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Ryan Johnson

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Logan Gilbert

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ryan Johnson

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ryan Johnson

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Logan Gilbert

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Ryan Johnson

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Logan Gilbert

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ryan Johnson

J.P. Crawford

SEA · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Ryan Johnson

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Logan Gilbert

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ryan Johnson

Michael Arroyo

SEA · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Ryan Johnson

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Logan Gilbert

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Logan Gilbert

Kyren Paris

LAA · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Logan Gilbert

Travis d'Arnaud

LAA · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Logan Gilbert

Weston Wilson

SEA · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ryan Johnson

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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