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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

ATL vs CHC

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATL @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATLANTAATL
0·0
CHICAGOCHC
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

ATL DUGOUTCHC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.1
FB93.4
FB93.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

ATL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYATL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

ATL Over 3.5 runs

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 15-for-51 (.294) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

ATL STARTER

JR Ritchie

AVERAGE
3.9
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 27% · 32% whiffSinker · 21% · 16% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 18% · 21% whiff

CHC STARTER

Shota Imanaga

AVERAGE
5.7
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 21% whiffSplit-Finger · 34% · 41% whiffSweeper · 15% · 28% whiff

Shota Imanaga grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs JR Ritchie grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 75% · HR 25%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 68% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 67% · HR 28%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Michael Harris II (L)hit 73% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 65% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Austin Riley (R)hit 59% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Mike Yastrzemski (L)hit 56% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ozzie Albies (S)hit 55% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brewer Hicklen (R)hit 52% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 74% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    56%

    2+ BASES

    42%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    61%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 69% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alex Bregman (R)hit 65% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyrone Taylor (R)hit 68% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nico Hoerner (R)hit 63% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Michael Busch (L)hit 61% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Matt Shaw (R)hit 54% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 58% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Miguel Amaya (R)hit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ATL CHC

Game Markets

ATL @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

35%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.20 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.66, CHC 4.55
  • JR Ritchie (ATL) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JR

JR Ritchie

ATL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

32%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against CHC
SI

Shota Imanaga

CHC SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 70% to reach 5+ against ATL
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing JR Ritchie
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing JR Ritchie
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
TT

Tyrone Taylor

CHC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing JR Ritchie
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing JR Ritchie
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing JR Ritchie
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing JR Ritchie
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
PR

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing JR Ritchie
MY

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
MS

Matt Shaw

CHC · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing JR Ritchie
MA

Miguel Amaya

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 28% against 33%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing JR Ritchie
BH

Brewer Hicklen

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Shota Imanaga

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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