BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

BAL vs NYM

Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BAL @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BALTIMOREBAL
0·0
NEW YORKNYM
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

BAL DUGOUTNYM DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94
CH82.7
FB93.4
FB94.1
FB94.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BAL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYM to win

44%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYM -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYM

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYM wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYBAL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

New York M wins

56%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

BAL STARTER

Chris Bassitt

AVERAGE
3.7
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 38% · 13% whiffCurveball · 22% · 30% whiffCutter · 19% · 22% whiff

NYM STARTER

Robert Stock

AVERAGE
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 31% · 21% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 30% whiffSinker · 22% · 10% whiff

Watch out: Cutter is getting hit hard lately.

Robert Stock grades avg (Pitching+ 96) vs Chris Bassitt grades avg (Pitching+ 97)

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Rece Hinds (R)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 71% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Coby Mayo (R)hit 64% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)hit 66% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 61% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jeremiah Jackson (R)hit 59% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Yohel Pozo (R)hit 54% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Leody Taveras (S)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Colton Cowser (L)hit 52% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 66% · HR 24%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Juan Soto (L)hit 70% · HR 30%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 63% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Carson Benge (L)hit 62% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jared Young (L)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Marcus Semien (R)hit 54% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7A.J. Ewing (L)hit 57% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Brett Baty (L)hit 55% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 52% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BAL NYM

Game Markets

BAL @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

33%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.83 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.53, NYM 4.30
  • Chris Bassitt (BAL) vs Robert Stock (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CB

Chris Bassitt

BAL SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against NYM
RS

Robert Stock

NYM SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

17%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against BAL
JS

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Robert Stock
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Robert Stock
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Robert Stock
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
JY

Jared Young

NYM · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Robert Stock
JJ

Jeremiah Jackson

BAL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Robert Stock
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 27% against 29%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
RH

Rece Hinds

BAL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Robert Stock
YP

Yohel Pozo

BAL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Robert Stock
FA

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Robert Stock
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Robert Stock

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.