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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

DET vs TOR

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the DET @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

DETROITDET
1·0
TORONTOTOR
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

DET DUGOUTTOR DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

DET Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.9
SL82.9
FB93.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

DET Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TOR to win

49%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TOR -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TOR

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TOR wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYDET Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Toronto wins

51%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETOR
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

DET STARTER

Keider Montero

SHAKY
2.3
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 14% whiffSinker · 23% · 10% whiffSlider · 19% · 28% whiff

TOR STARTER

Max Scherzer

AVERAGE
2.8
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 16% whiffSlider · 18% · 27% whiffChangeup · 15% · 17% whiff

Max Scherzer grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Keider Montero grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Gleyber Torres (R)hit 62% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 58% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Riley Greene (L)hit 66% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Eduardo Valencia (R)hit 66% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Max Clark (L)hit 56% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 51% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Zach McKinstry (L)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9John Peck (R)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

TOR LINEUP

  1. 1Brett Bateman (L)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2George Springer (R)hit 64% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 65% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alejandro Kirk (R)hit 63% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathan Lukes (L)hit 61% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 59% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andrés Giménez (L)hit 53% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Josh Smith (L)hit 51% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ernie Clement (R)hit 56% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

DET TOR

Game Markets

DET @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

37%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.31 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.61, TOR 4.71
  • Keider Montero (DET) vs Max Scherzer (TOR)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KM

Keider Montero

DET SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.3 strikeouts
  • 7% to reach 5+ against TOR
MS

Max Scherzer

TOR SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 14% to reach 5+ against DET
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Keider Montero
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
EV

Eduardo Valencia

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Max Scherzer
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
GS

George Springer

TOR · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Keider Montero
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Max Scherzer
VJ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Keider Montero
BB

Brett Bateman

TOR · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Keider Montero
AK

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Keider Montero
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Max Scherzer
NL

Nathan Lukes

TOR · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Keider Montero
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Max Scherzer
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
EC

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Keider Montero
AG

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Keider Montero
JS

Josh Smith

TOR · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Keider Montero
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
JP

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 24% against 29%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Max Scherzer

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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