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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

KC vs HOU

Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
HOUSTONHOU
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTHOU DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

KC Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL86
FB95
FB94.6
FB94.3
FB93.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

KC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

HOU to win

60%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

HOU -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL HOU

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

HOU wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYKC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Houston wins

40%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEHOU

KC STARTER

Daniel Lynch IV

AVERAGE
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 32% · 14% whiffChangeup · 24% · 25% whiffSlider · 20% · 37% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

HOU STARTER

Cristian Javier

AVERAGE
5.2
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 27% whiffSweeper · 26% · 40% whiffChangeup · 17% · 32% whiff

Cristian Javier grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Daniel Lynch IV grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 58% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 67% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 67% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Maikel Garciahit 58% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Vinnie Pasquantino (L)hit 57% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Michael Massey (L)hit 58% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7John Rave (L)hit 52% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Kyle Isbel (L)hit 47% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Isaac Collins (S)hit 45% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 68% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 77% · HR 30%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    42%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    58%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 64% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jose Altuve (R)hit 60% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Yainer Diaz (R)hit 69% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Daulton Varsho (L)hit 54% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Christian Walker (R)hit 59% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cam Smith (R)hit 56% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC HOU

Game Markets

KC @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

45%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore KC by 1.09 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.83, HOU 4.92
  • Daniel Lynch IV (KC) vs Cristian Javier (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DI

Daniel Lynch IV

KC SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

82%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

80%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against HOU
CJ

Cristian Javier

HOU SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against KC
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

62%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cristian Javier
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cristian Javier
YD

Yainer Diaz

HOU · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 30% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Cristian Javier
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
VP

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Cristian Javier
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Cristian Javier
MG

Maikel Garcia

KC · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 4
  • Facing Cristian Javier
JR

John Rave

KC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristian Javier
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
DV

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
LJ

LaMonte Wade Jr.

HOU · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Daniel Lynch IV
KI

Kyle Isbel

KC · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristian Javier
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristian Javier

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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