AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAD vs CIN

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD

0·0

CINCINNATICIN

TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH84.1

SL85.7

FB93.5

CT88.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAD Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

60%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYLAD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Los Angeles D wins

40%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD

LINEUP EDGELAD

LAD STARTER

Blake Snell

ELITE

8.3
PROJECTED Ks: 120
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 49% · 24% whiffCurveball · 22% · 45% whiffChangeup · 18% · 45% whiff

CIN STARTER

Andrew Abbott

SHAKY

2.9
PROJECTED Ks: 94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 12% whiffSweeper · 20% · 27% whiffChangeup · 19% · 37% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Andrew Abbott grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Blake Snell grades elite (Pitching+ 120)

LAD LINEUP

1Josue De Paula (L)hit 69% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
2Freddie Freeman (L)hit 76% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
3Mookie Betts (R)hit 70% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
4Kyle Tucker (L)hit 66% · HR 16%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 72% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
6Max Muncy (L)hit 66% · HR 25%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
7Tommy Edman (S)hit 63% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
8Hunter Feduccia (L)hit 62% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
9Alex Freeland (S)hit 58% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

1Carlos Jorge (L)hit 61% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 67% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 68% · HR 24%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
4JJ Bleday (L)hit 57% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 59% · HR 25%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
6Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 56% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Matt McLain (R)hit 45% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Juan Brito (S)hit 57% · HR 13%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Will Banfield (R)hit 51% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD CIN

Game Markets

LAD @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

68%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

24%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

19%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

61%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore CIN by 2.27 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: LAD 5.87, CIN 3.60
Blake Snell (LAD) vs Andrew Abbott (CIN)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Blake Snell

LAD SP · vs. CIN

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

47%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 8.3 strikeouts
96% to reach 5+ against CIN

Andrew Abbott

CIN SP · vs. LAD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
17% to reach 5+ against LAD

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Andrew Abbott

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Andrew Abbott

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Blake Snell

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Andrew Abbott

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Blake Snell

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Andrew Abbott

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Blake Snell

Josue De Paula

LAD · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Andrew Abbott

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Andrew Abbott

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Blake Snell

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Abbott

Hunter Feduccia

LAD · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Andrew Abbott

Carlos Jorge

CIN · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Blake Snell

Alex Freeland

LAD · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Abbott

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Blake Snell

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Blake Snell

Will Banfield

CIN · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Blake Snell

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 65%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Blake Snell

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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