AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYY vs MIN
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYY @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYY Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIN to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIN -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIN
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIN wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
NYY STARTER
Carlos Rodón
SHAKY- 6.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 94
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
MIN STARTER
Zebby Matthews
SHAKY- 3.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 95
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Zebby Matthews grades poor (Pitching+ 95) vs Carlos Rodón grades poor (Pitching+ 94)
NYY LINEUP
1Ben Rice (L)hit 74% · HR 36%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
36%
HOME RUN
57%
2+ BASES
45%
3+ BASES
38%
4+ BASES
46%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
59%
SCORES A RUN
2Cody Bellinger (L)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
3Heliot Ramos (R)hit 64% · HR 13%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Luis García Jr. (L)hit 76% · HR 33%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
33%
HOME RUN
56%
2+ BASES
44%
3+ BASES
36%
4+ BASES
50%
RBI
27%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
5Spencer Jones (L)hit 65% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 57% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Anthony Volpe (R)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Ali Sánchez (R)hit 56% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
9José Caballero (R)hit 51% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
MIN LINEUP
1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 59% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
2Kaelen Culpepper (R)hit 59% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
3Josh Bell (S)hit 61% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
4Kody Clemens (L)hit 59% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
5Royce Lewis (R)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
6Brooks Lee (S)hit 52% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
7Victor Caratini (S)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
8Emmanuel Rodriguez (L)hit 51% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Austin Martin (R)hit 48% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYY @ MIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
MIN F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
52%
Run Line
MIN -1.5
29%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore MIN by 0.74 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYY 4.77, MIN 4.03
- Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs Zebby Matthews (MIN)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Carlos Rodón
NYY SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
26%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
- 76% to reach 5+ against MIN
Zebby Matthews
MIN SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
41%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
- 33% to reach 5+ against NYY
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Luis García Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 28% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Spencer Jones
NYY · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Cody Bellinger
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Heliot Ramos
NYY · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Ali Sánchez
NYY · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Kaelen Culpepper
MIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Carlos Rodón
George Lombard Jr.
NYY · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Anthony Volpe
NYY · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 61%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 61%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Emmanuel Rodriguez
MIN · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Carlos Rodón
José Caballero
NYY · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Victor Caratini
MIN · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Austin Martin
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Carlos Rodón
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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