Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Bryce Harper · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
reaches base often, gets pushed across
Trea Turner · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Derek Hill · Over 0.5 1+ HR
elite contact running hot, lefty park boost
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
PHI @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
36%
Game Total
Over 8.5
34%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
34%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
25%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
40%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
26%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore WSH by 1.01 runs across 5,000 trials.
PHI SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
48%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
67%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
WSH SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
45%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
9%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
40%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
27%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
PHI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
WSH · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
PHI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
WSH · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
WSH · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
WSH · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ bases at 33% against 34%.
WSH · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.
WSH · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.
WSH · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.
WSH · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 60%.
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
16%
Total Bases
3+ bases
7%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
14%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 60%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Neutral.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.2–3.2 · projected total 7.4 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
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