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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SD vs COL

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SD @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN DIEGOSD
0·0
COLORADOCOL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SD DUGOUTCOL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SD Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.2
SL84.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SD Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

COL to win

55%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

COL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL COL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

COL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

San Diego wins

45%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

SD Over 4.5 runs

60%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 42-for-141 (.298) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · 70°F, 16mph wind · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECOL
LINEUP EDGESD

SD STARTER

Robbie Ray

SHAKY
4.3
PROJECTED Ks
86
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 20% whiffSlider · 23% · 36% whiffChangeup · 19% · 25% whiff

COL STARTER

Mason Adams

SHAKY
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 34% · 29% whiffSinker · 26% · 7% whiffCurveball · 18% · 50% whiff

Mason Adams grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Robbie Ray grades poor (Pitching+ 86)

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 82% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    82%

    1+ HIT

    50%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    63%

    2+ BASES

    47%

    3+ BASES

    37%

    4+ BASES

    48%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    63%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Austin Hays (R)hit 72% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 73% · HR 31%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty Francehit 77% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    39%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 76% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    76%

    1+ HIT

    40%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 64% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Luis Campusano (R)hit 69% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Samad Taylor (R)hit 70% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 59% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

COL LINEUP

  1. 1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 72% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Adael Amador (S)hit 61% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Cole Carrigg (S)hit 64% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4TJ Rumfield (L)hit 70% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Kyle Karros (R)hit 65% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Mickey Moniak (L)hit 67% · HR 26%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Troy Johnston (L)hit 65% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Brett Sullivan (L)hit 58% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Zac Veen (L)hit 55% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SD COL

Game Markets

SD @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

75%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

70%

Run Line

COL -1.5

38%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

62%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

62%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 12.10 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SD 6.10, COL 6.00
  • Robbie Ray (SD) vs Mason Adams (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RR

Robbie Ray

SD SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against COL
MA

Mason Adams

COL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

6%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against SD
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Mason Adams
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

85%

Hits

2+ hits

53%

Total Bases

2+ bases

67%

Total Bases

3+ bases

50%

Total Bases

4+ bases

39%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 39% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Mason Adams
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Mason Adams
TF

Ty France

SD · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Mason Adams
MM

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Robbie Ray
JM

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Robbie Ray
LC

Luis Campusano

SD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Mason Adams
AH

Austin Hays

SD · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Mason Adams
TR

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Robbie Ray
ST

Samad Taylor

SD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Mason Adams
KK

Kyle Karros

COL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Robbie Ray
TJ

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Robbie Ray
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Mason Adams
CC

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Robbie Ray
AA

Adael Amador

COL · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Robbie Ray
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 71%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Mason Adams
BS

Brett Sullivan

COL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 71%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Robbie Ray
ZV

Zac Veen

COL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 71%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Robbie Ray

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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