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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

ATL vs CHC

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATL @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATLANTAATL
0·0
CHICAGOCHC
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

ATL DUGOUTCHC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94
SL84.9
SL83.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

ATL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYATL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Chicago C wins

50%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

ATL STARTER

JR Ritchie

AVERAGE
3.7
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 27% · 32% whiffSinker · 21% · 16% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 18% · 21% whiff

CHC STARTER

Shota Imanaga

AVERAGE
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 21% whiffSplit-Finger · 34% · 41% whiffSweeper · 15% · 28% whiff

Shota Imanaga grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs JR Ritchie grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 68% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Drake Baldwin (L)hit 71% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 68% · HR 26%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ozzie Albies (S)hit 59% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Harris II (L)hit 71% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 61% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Austin Riley (R)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Sean Murphy (R)hit 50% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ha-Seong Kim (R)hit 47% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 68% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 64% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Michael Busch (L)hit 60% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alex Bregman (R)hit 59% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ian Happ (S)hit 56% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 60% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Conforto (L)hit 56% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Carson Kelly (R)hit 54% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ATL CHC

Game Markets

ATL @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

54%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

41%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore ATL by 0.54 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.28, CHC 4.81
  • JR Ritchie (ATL) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
JR

JR Ritchie

ATL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against CHC
SI

Shota Imanaga

CHC SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against ATL
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing JR Ritchie
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
MC

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing JR Ritchie
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing JR Ritchie
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing JR Ritchie
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing JR Ritchie
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing JR Ritchie
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing JR Ritchie
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
CK

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing JR Ritchie
PR

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing JR Ritchie
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 15%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shota Imanaga
HK

Ha-Seong Kim

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shota Imanaga

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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