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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

BOS vs TEX

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BOS @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BOSTONBOS
0·0
TEXASTEX
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

BOS DUGOUTTEX DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

BOS Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL86.2
CT89.1
CT91.6
FB93.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BOS Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · BOS LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TEX to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TEX -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TEX

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TEX wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYBOS Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBOS
LINEUP EDGETEX

BOS STARTER

Jake Bennett

AVERAGE
4.5
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 21% whiffChangeup · 26% · 33% whiffSinker · 25% · 13% whiff

TEX STARTER

MacKenzie Gore

AVERAGE
4.5
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 22% whiffCurveball · 18% · 30% whiffChangeup · 13% · 38% whiff

MacKenzie Gore grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Jake Bennett grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 63% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jahmai Jones (R)hit 60% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 62% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Willson Contrerashit 65% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Adley Rutschman (S)hit 56% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Trevor Story (R)hit 53% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)hit 55% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nate Eaton (R)hit 47% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Justin Foscue (R)hit 70% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Corey Seager (L)hit 72% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Josh Jung (R)hit 68% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jake Burger (R)hit 66% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 68% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Wyatt Langford (R)hit 62% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 61% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Elias Díaz (R)hit 56% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Danny Jansen (R)hit 49% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BOS TEX

Game Markets

BOS @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

41%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore BOS by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.02, TEX 4.61
  • Jake Bennett (BOS) vs MacKenzie Gore (TEX)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
JB

Jake Bennett

BOS SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against TEX
MG

MacKenzie Gore

TEX SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against BOS
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Bennett
WC

Willson Contreras

BOS · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Bennett
JF

Justin Foscue

TEX · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Bennett
JJ

Josh Jung

TEX · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Bennett
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Jake Bennett
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Bennett
JJ

Jahmai Jones

BOS · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Bennett
ED

Elias Díaz

TEX · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Bennett
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
IK

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

BOS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
DJ

Danny Jansen

TEX · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jake Bennett
NE

Nate Eaton

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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