AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCWS vs CLE
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CWS @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CWS Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CLE to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CLE -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CLE
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CLE wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CWS STARTER
Anthony Kay
GOOD- 2.7
- PROJECTED Ks
- 108
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
CLE STARTER
Parker Messick
AVERAGE- 5.2
- PROJECTED Ks
- 104
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Parker Messick grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Anthony Kay grades good (Pitching+ 108)
CWS LINEUP
1Chase Meidroth (R)hit 62% · HR 10%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Randal Grichuk (R)hit 67% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 60% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
4Tommy Phamhit 54% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
5Kyle Teel (L)hit 51% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
6Brenton Doyle (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
7Colson Montgomery (L)hit 50% · HR 15%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
8Luisangel Acuña (R)hit 51% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
15%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Tristan Peters (L)hit 52% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
CLE LINEUP
1Steven Kwan (L)hit 66% · HR 5%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2José Ramírez (S)hit 64% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
3Jo Adell (R)hit 68% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4Travis Bazzana (L)hit 58% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5David Fry (R)hit 50% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Angel Genao (S)hit 58% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Austin Hedges (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Petey Halpin (L)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CWS @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
35%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
41%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
38%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
30%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore CWS by 0.44 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CWS 3.45, CLE 3.89
- Anthony Kay (CWS) vs Parker Messick (CLE)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Anthony Kay
CWS SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
7%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
36%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
23%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
- 13% to reach 5+ against CLE
Parker Messick
CLE SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
72%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 63% to reach 5+ against CWS
Jo Adell
CLE · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Anthony Kay
Randal Grichuk
CWS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Parker Messick
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Parker Messick
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Parker Messick
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Anthony Kay
José Ramírez
CLE · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Parker Messick
David Fry
CLE · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 10% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 28% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Anthony Kay
Kyle Teel
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Parker Messick
Angel Genao
CLE · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Petey Halpin
CLE · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Tommy Pham
CWS · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 59%.
- Batting 4
- Facing Parker Messick
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 59%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Parker Messick
Brenton Doyle
CWS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Parker Messick
Austin Hedges
CLE · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Luisangel Acuña
CWS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Parker Messick
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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