AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAD vs CIN

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD

0·0

CINCINNATICIN

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH83.9

SL83.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAD Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYLAD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD

LINEUP EDGELAD

LAD STARTER

Blake Snell

ELITE

8.8
PROJECTED Ks: 120
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 49% · 24% whiffCurveball · 22% · 45% whiffChangeup · 18% · 45% whiff

CIN STARTER

Andrew Abbott

SHAKY

2.8
PROJECTED Ks: 94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 12% whiffSweeper · 20% · 27% whiffChangeup · 19% · 37% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Andrew Abbott grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Blake Snell grades elite (Pitching+ 120)

LAD LINEUP

1Tommy Edman (S)hit 66% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
2Mookie Betts (R)hit 68% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
3Will Smith (R)hit 68% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 72% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 68% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
6Miguel Rojas (R)hit 64% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Kyle Tucker (L)hit 64% · HR 14%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
8Enrique Hernández (R)hit 55% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
9Alex Call (R)hit 58% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

1Dane Myers (R)hit 56% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 64% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 60% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 52% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 47% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Juan Brito (S)hit 53% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
7JJ Bleday (L)hit 47% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Jose Trevino (R)hit 44% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
9Matt McLain (R)hit 41% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
41%
1+ HIT
8%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD CIN

Game Markets

LAD @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

27%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

22%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore CIN by 1.58 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: LAD 5.14, CIN 3.56
Blake Snell (LAD) vs Andrew Abbott (CIN)
Run on confirmed lineups

Blake Snell

LAD SP · vs. CIN

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

98%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

55%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 8.8 strikeouts
98% to reach 5+ against CIN

Andrew Abbott

CIN SP · vs. LAD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
15% to reach 5+ against LAD

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Andrew Abbott

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Andrew Abbott

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Blake Snell

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Andrew Abbott

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Andrew Abbott

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Blake Snell

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Abbott

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Andrew Abbott

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Blake Snell

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Abbott

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Abbott

Alex Call

LAD · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Andrew Abbott

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Blake Snell

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Blake Snell

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Blake Snell

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Blake Snell

Jose Trevino

CIN · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 61%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Blake Snell

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

42%

Hits

2+ hits

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 13%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Blake Snell

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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