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MIL vs PIT

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
PITTSBURGHPIT
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTPIT DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.4
FB95.3
SL83.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PIT to win

41%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PIT -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PIT

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PIT wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Pittsburgh wins

59%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Logan Henderson

GOOD
6.4
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 21% whiffChangeup · 35% · 38% whiffCutter · 16% · 21% whiff

PIT STARTER

Jared Jones

GOOD
7.2
PROJECTED Ks
108
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 23% whiffSlider · 35% · 42% whiffChangeup · 11% · 41% whiff

Jared Jones grades good (Pitching+ 108) vs Logan Henderson grades good (Pitching+ 106)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Brice Turang (L)hit 61% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jackson Chourio (R)hit 66% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jake Bauers (L)hit 61% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4William Contreras (R)hit 63% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Christian Yelich (L)hit 58% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Joey Ortiz (R)hit 59% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Luis Lara (S)hit 57% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Andrew Vaughn (R)hit 61% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Cooper Pratt (R)hit 55% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 64% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 61% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Oneil Cruz (L)hit 58% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 53% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ryan O'Hearn (L)hit 58% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ronny Simon (S)hit 50% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 48% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jake Mangum (S)hit 51% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIL PIT

Game Markets

MIL @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

25%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

30%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PIT by 1.01 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.48, PIT 3.46
  • Logan Henderson (MIL) vs Jared Jones (PIT)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

20%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against PIT
JJ

Jared Jones

PIT SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

30%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

32%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
  • 85% to reach 5+ against MIL
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Henderson
OC

Oneil Cruz

PIT · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Henderson
JB

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jared Jones
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jared Jones
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jared Jones
RO

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Logan Henderson
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jared Jones
CY

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Jared Jones
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ bases — 40% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Logan Henderson
AV

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jared Jones
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jared Jones
KG

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Henderson
LL

Luis Lara

MIL · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Jared Jones
RJ

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Henderson
CP

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jared Jones
JM

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

14%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Henderson
RS

Ronny Simon

PIT · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Logan Henderson
JG

Jacob Gonzalez

PIT · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Henderson

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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