AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYY vs MIN
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYY @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYY Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIN to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIN -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIN
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIN wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDNYY Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 9-for-27 (.333) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
NYY STARTER
Carlos Rodón
SHAKY- 5.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 94
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
MIN STARTER
Zebby Matthews
SHAKY- 4.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 95
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Zebby Matthews grades poor (Pitching+ 95) vs Carlos Rodón grades poor (Pitching+ 94)
NYY LINEUP
1Ben Rice (L)hit 74% · HR 38%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
38%
HOME RUN
57%
2+ BASES
46%
3+ BASES
40%
4+ BASES
48%
RBI
23%
2+ RBIs
63%
SCORES A RUN
2Cody Bellinger (L)hit 69% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
3Aaron Judge (R)hit 71% · HR 28%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
28%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
4Luis García Jr. (L)hit 74% · HR 32%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
32%
HOME RUN
55%
2+ BASES
43%
3+ BASES
36%
4+ BASES
49%
RBI
26%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
5Spencer Jones (L)hit 68% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
6George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 59% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Ryan McMahon (L)hit 57% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Wells (L)hit 50% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
9Anthony Volpe (R)hit 55% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
MIN LINEUP
1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 60% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Austin Martin (R)hit 51% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
3Ryan Jeffers (R)hit 57% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
4Josh Bell (S)hit 59% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Kody Clemens (L)hit 58% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
6Royce Lewis (R)hit 52% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
7Emmanuel Rodriguez (L)hit 50% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Ryan Kreidler (R)hit 44% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
9Ben Rosshit 49% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYY @ MIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
68%
1st 5 Innings
MIN F5
30%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
MIN -1.5
19%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
61%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
33%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore MIN by 2.18 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYY 5.87, MIN 3.70
- Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs Zebby Matthews (MIN)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Carlos Rodón
NYY SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
34%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
45%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
- 68% to reach 5+ against MIN
Zebby Matthews
MIN SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
69%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 43% to reach 5+ against NYY
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
38%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
43%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Luis García Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Aaron Judge
NYY · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Spencer Jones
NYY · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Cody Bellinger
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Ryan Jeffers
MIN · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Ryan McMahon
NYY · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Carlos Rodón
George Lombard Jr.
NYY · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Anthony Volpe
NYY · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Austin Martin
MIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Austin Wells
NYY · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Emmanuel Rodriguez
MIN · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Ben Ross
MIN · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 62%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Carlos Rodón
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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