AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPHI vs WSH
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PHI @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PHI Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PHI Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PHI LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
WSH to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
WSH -1.5
TEAM TOTAL WSH
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
WSH wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
PHI STARTER
Zack Wheeler
GOOD- 7.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 112
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
WSH STARTER
Jared Simpson
- 3.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
Jared Simpson projects 3.5 Ks vs Zack Wheeler grades good (Pitching+ 112)
PHI LINEUP
1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 65% · HR 29%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
59%
SCORES A RUN
2Trea Turner (R)hit 62% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryce Harper (L)hit 64% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
4Luis Arraez (L)hit 70% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Alec Bohm (R)hit 64% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Bryson Stott (L)hit 59% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
7J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
8Brandon Marsh (L)hit 61% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
9Justin Crawford (L)hit 58% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
WSH LINEUP
1James Wood (L)hit 60% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Daylen Lile (L)hit 59% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
3Abimelec Ortiz (L)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
4CJ Abrams (L)hit 57% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
5José Tena (L)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
6Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 51% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
7Dylan Crews (R)hit 46% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
8Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 56% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 41% · HR 2%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
41%
1+ HIT
9%
2+ HITS
2%
HOME RUN
14%
2+ BASES
6%
3+ BASES
3%
4+ BASES
11%
RBI
2%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PHI @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
70%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
24%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
17%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
58%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
26%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore WSH by 2.45 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: PHI 5.69, WSH 3.24
- Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs Jared Simpson (WSH)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Zack Wheeler
PHI SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
36%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.6 strikeouts
- 87% to reach 5+ against WSH
Jared Simpson
WSH SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
9%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
28%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
18%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
- 26% to reach 5+ against PHI
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Jared Simpson
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Zack Wheeler
Luis Arraez
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Jared Simpson
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jared Simpson
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Jared Simpson
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Zack Wheeler
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Simpson
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zack Wheeler
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Simpson
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Simpson
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Simpson
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Jared Simpson
Keibert Ruiz
WSH · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zack Wheeler
Jorbit Vivas
WSH · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 60%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Zack Wheeler
Abimelec Ortiz
WSH · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Wheeler
José Tena
WSH · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Wheeler
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Zack Wheeler
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
2%
Hits
1+ hits
43%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
15%
Total Bases
3+ bases
6%
Total Bases
4+ bases
3%
RBIs
1+ RBI
12%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
3%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 60%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Wheeler
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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