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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SD vs COL

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SD @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN DIEGOSD
0·0
COLORADOCOL
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

SD DUGOUTCOL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SD Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.2
FB93.4
SL86.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SD Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

COL to win

47%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

COL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL COL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

COL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

San Diego wins

53%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

COL Over 4.5 runs

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 18-for-54 (.333) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · 81°F, 18mph wind · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESD
LINEUP EDGESD

SD STARTER

Michael King

AVERAGE
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 28% · 17% whiffChangeup · 27% · 28% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 28% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

COL STARTER

Tanner Gordon

SHAKY
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 43% · 22% whiffChangeup · 22% · 24% whiffSlider · 22% · 22% whiff

Tanner Gordon grades poor (Pitching+ 93) vs Michael King grades avg (Pitching+ 97)

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 80% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    80%

    1+ HIT

    48%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    60%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    62%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Dustin Harris (L)hit 70% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 70% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty Francehit 74% · HR 25%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 73% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 61% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 58% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Samad Taylor (R)hit 66% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ethan Salas (L)hit 59% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

COL LINEUP

  1. 1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 72% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Connor Norby (R)hit 62% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Cole Carrigg (S)hit 68% · HR 16%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Kyle Karros (R)hit 65% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Adael Amador (S)hit 65% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Troy Johnston (L)hit 65% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jordan Beck (R)hit 56% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Braxton Fulfordhit 53% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 54% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SD COL

Game Markets

SD @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

75%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

71%

Run Line

COL -1.5

33%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

66%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

60%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore COL by 0.74 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 6.52, COL 5.78
  • Michael King (SD) vs Tanner Gordon (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MK

Michael King

SD SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against COL
TG

Tanner Gordon

COL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against SD
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

84%

Hits

2+ hits

50%

Total Bases

2+ bases

64%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 35% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
TF

Ty France

SD · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
AA

Adael Amador

COL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael King
JM

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Michael King
DH

Dustin Harris

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
KK

Kyle Karros

COL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Michael King
CC

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 30% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Michael King
ST

Samad Taylor

SD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
TJ

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Michael King
CN

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael King
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 68%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
ES

Ethan Salas

SD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
JB

Jordan Beck

COL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King
ET

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Michael King
BF

Braxton Fulford

COL · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 68%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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