AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SEA vs LAA

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SEA @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SEATTLESEA

0·0

LOS ANGELESLAA

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.6

FB94

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SEA Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYSEA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA

LINEUP EDGESEA

SEA STARTER

George Kirby

GOOD

5.1
PROJECTED Ks: 112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 23% whiffSweeper · 28% · 26% whiffSinker · 21% · 12% whiff

LAA STARTER

Yusei Kikuchi

AVERAGE

5.7
PROJECTED Ks: 100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 21% whiffSlider · 24% · 28% whiffSplit-Finger · 17% · 33% whiff

Yusei Kikuchi grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs George Kirby grades good (Pitching+ 112)

SEA LINEUP

1J.P. Crawford (L)hit 62% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 69% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 70% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 55% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 64% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Josh Naylor (L)hit 63% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Taylor Ward (R)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Cole Young (L)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
9Weston Wilson (R)hit 55% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

1Zach Neto (R)hit 65% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
2Mike Trout (R)hit 68% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Wade Meckler (L)hit 65% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 60% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
5Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 58% · HR 12%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
6Denzer Guzman (R)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
7Josh Lowe (L)hit 54% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Christian Moore (R)hit 48% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Adam Frazier (L)hit 52% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SEA LAA

Game Markets

SEA @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

25%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore LAA by 1.25 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: SEA 4.87, LAA 3.62
George Kirby (SEA) vs Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)
Run on confirmed lineups

George Kirby

SEA SP · vs. LAA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

62%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
58% to reach 5+ against LAA

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA SP · vs. SEA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

78%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
69% to reach 5+ against SEA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Yusei Kikuchi

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Yusei Kikuchi

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing George Kirby

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Yusei Kikuchi

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing George Kirby

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Yusei Kikuchi

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing George Kirby

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Yusei Kikuchi

J.P. Crawford

SEA · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Yusei Kikuchi

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing George Kirby

Weston Wilson

SEA · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Yusei Kikuchi

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Yusei Kikuchi

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing George Kirby

Josh Lowe

LAA · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing George Kirby

Taylor Ward

SEA · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Yusei Kikuchi

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing George Kirby

Adam Frazier

LAA · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing George Kirby

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 62%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing George Kirby

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.