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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SF vs STL

San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SF @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN FRANCISCOSF
0·0
ST. LOUISSTL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SF DUGOUTSTL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SF Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV79
SL86.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SF Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSF Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESF
LINEUP EDGESTL

SF STARTER

Anthony Molina

AVERAGE
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 48% · 20% whiffChangeup · 23% · 18% whiffCurveball · 16% · 31% whiff

STL STARTER

Matthew Liberatore

AVERAGE
4.3
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 30% · 12% whiffSlider · 27% · 36% whiffCurveball · 18% · 41% whiff

Matthew Liberatore grades avg (Pitching+ 95) vs Anthony Molina grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Jonah Cox (R)hit 64% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 67% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Brett Harris (R)hit 54% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 62% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Shay Whitcomb (R)hit 54% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Turner Hill (L)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andrew Knizner (R)hit 45% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Scott Bandurahit 52% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 50% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

STL LINEUP

  1. 1JJ Wetherholthit 66% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Leo Bernal (S)hit 67% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alec Burleson (L)hit 72% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jordan Walker (R)hit 69% · HR 20%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Joshua Báez (R)hit 61% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nolan Gorman (L)hit 55% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Thomas Saggese (R)hit 60% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nathan Church (L)hit 57% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Pedro Pagés (R)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SF STL

Game Markets

SF @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

STL -1.5

44%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore SF by 0.98 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SF 3.61, STL 4.59
  • Anthony Molina (SF) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
AM

Anthony Molina

SF SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against STL
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against SF
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Anthony Molina
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Anthony Molina
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
JB

Joshua Báez

STL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Anthony Molina
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Anthony Molina
NG

Nolan Gorman

STL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Anthony Molina
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
JW

JJ Wetherholt

STL · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Anthony Molina
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Molina
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Molina
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
BH

Brett Harris

SF · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
SB

Scott Bandura

SF · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
PP

Pedro Pagés

STL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Anthony Molina
AK

Andrew Knizner

SF · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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