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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

BOS vs TEX

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers

Thursday, September 17, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BOS @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BOSTONBOS
0·0
TEXASTEX
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

BOS DUGOUTTEX DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

BOS Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV79.1
FB92.5
FB95.1
FB91.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BOS Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · BOS LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TEX to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TEX -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TEX

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TEX wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYBOS Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

BOS STARTER

Sonny Gray

AVERAGE
4.7
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 22% · 16% whiffSweeper · 20% · 39% whiffCutter · 19% · 15% whiff

TEX STARTER

Tyler Alexander

AVERAGE
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 24% · 27% whiffCutter · 21% · 20% whiffSinker · 19% · 5% whiff

Tyler Alexander grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Sonny Gray grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 70% · HR 13%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jahmai Jones (R)hit 66% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 68% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Willson Contrerashit 67% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Adley Rutschman (S)hit 59% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Trevor Story (R)hit 59% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jarren Duran (L)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Caleb Durbin (R)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nick Sogard (S)hit 59% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Corey Seager (L)hit 67% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Josh Jung (R)hit 69% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 63% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Wyatt Langford (R)hit 66% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jake Burger (R)hit 61% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nicky Lopez (L)hit 57% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Danny Jansen (R)hit 46% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Evan Carter (L)hit 47% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BOS TEX

Game Markets

BOS @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

32%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore TEX by 0.30 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.44, TEX 4.14
  • Sonny Gray (BOS) vs Tyler Alexander (TEX)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
SG

Sonny Gray

BOS SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against TEX
TA

Tyler Alexander

TEX SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

84%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against BOS
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sonny Gray
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Sonny Gray
WC

Willson Contreras

BOS · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Facing Tyler Alexander
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Alexander
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Tyler Alexander
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Sonny Gray
JJ

Josh Jung

TEX · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Sonny Gray
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sonny Gray
JJ

Jahmai Jones

BOS · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Alexander
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Sonny Gray
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Alexander
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Alexander
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Facing Tyler Alexander
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Alexander
NL

Nicky Lopez

TEX · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sonny Gray
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Alexander
EC

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sonny Gray
DJ

Danny Jansen

TEX · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Sonny Gray

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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